Narrowbody deliveries could fall by as much as 20% but jet deliveries set to grow again by 2012

LONDON & NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Opportunities as well as risks may be overlooked in the current economic climate, according to Ascend, the global aerospace specialists. The company has responded with a new online forecasting service.

Tailored specifically inline with customer requests, the Ascend Online Global Fleet Forecaster provides reliable and impartial insight into global fleet developments, providing benchmark analysis and identifying opportunities in the aviation market.

The new Global Fleet Forecaster includes:

• Independent 10-year annual aircraft delivery forecasts for over 45 aircraft types.
• Detailed commentary and analysis for delivery and fleet forecasts.
• Predictions per aircraft manufacturer, type and usage.
• Global five and ten year fleet forecasts by region.
• Expected global retirements, conversions, recycling and deliveries.

The big picture
The Global Fleet Forecaster's current projections for aviation globally show:

• Narrowbody deliveries could be down by as much as 20% over the next three years.
• A return to growth in jet deliveries is forecast for 2012.
• Widebody deliveries are forecast to grow to over 400 a year by the middle of the next decade, subject to the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 achieving planned rates.

Homing in on regional opportunities and risks
Taking Asia as an example of the Global Fleet Forecaster's regional coverage, Ascend's 10-year forecast shows:

• Asia/Pacific currently accounts for 22% of the jet fleet (in third place) but the strong growth in the region (35% of all deliveries) will see it surpass Europe to represent a 28% share in 2019, just one point behind North America.
• The Chinese fleet will expand at ever higher growth rates, from 7% to a 10% global share and taking 14% of deliveries.
• Southeast Asia's narrowbody needs are growing along with the expansion of low cost carriers, led by AirAsia. Thirty-six per cent of global narrowbody deliveries will be to Asia (17% in China alone) over the coming decade.
• Australasia, including Australia and the Pacific islands, is the single largest market for new deliveries of widebody aircraft - 42%. Overall, 33% of the region's fleet is widebodied.

"Leading banks, financiers, manufacturers and suppliers can rely on the Global Fleet Forecaster to evaluate and understand the global aircraft fleet and commercial jet market," says Ascend's fleet forecasting specialist Chris Seymour.

"Ascend delivers unrivalled analytical and forecasting insight to align your business to changing markets and to successfully plan for the future. Using analysis of the Ascend Online Fleets database and extensive market knowledge, the Global Fleet Forecaster is Ascend's definitive and independent opinion, enabling companies to perform strategic business planning with confidence.

"Used as primary source of expert and objective analysis or to benchmark internal forecasting models, Ascend's forecasts are an invaluable resource to understand aircraft deliveries and the future global fleet."

About Ascend
Ascend (www.ascendworldwide.com) is the world's leading provider of specialist information and consultancy services to the global air transport industry. For over four decades it has supplied the most reliable, trusted and up-to-date aviation industry information and insight available anywhere.

Today, all of Ascend's market-leading products and services are built to deliver decision-support information, insight and consultancy across a wide spectrum. Offerings include:

• Aviation Fleet Information
• Valuations and Appraisals
• Technical and Commercial Solutions
• Market Analysis
• Airport Economics
• Air Safety
• Space Analytics

From aircraft manufacturers to operators, financiers, lessors and suppliers, the aviation industry relies on Ascend to help make informed decisions and capture new opportunities.

Ascend is based in London with offices in New York and Hong Kong.

Contacts

Ascend
Nancy Prendergast
nancy@tannissanmae.com
or
Tannissan Mae Communications
Lise Colyer, +44 (0) 20 7243 4440
lise@tannissanmae.com